How to Conduct Adversary Profiling
In today’s volatile cyber security threat landscape, adversary profiling stands as a critical component for an organization's defense strategy. Understanding adversary tradecraft enables organizations to anticipate threats, fortify defenses, and mitigate potential damage.
In today’s volatile cyber security threat landscape, adversary profiling stands as a critical component for an organization's defense strategy. Understanding the tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) of adversaries enables organizations to anticipate threats, fortify defenses, and mitigate potential damage. Cyber threat intelligence (CTI) plays a pivotal role in this process, providing the necessary insights to effectively profile adversaries. Here, we delve into the steps for conducting adversary profiling with CTI. The primary focus of this post is comprehending adversaries. The latter, post-profiling steps in the process will be comprehensively discussed in a future article.
Collection: Consume Threat Intelligence
The foundation of adversary profiling lies in the accumulation of comprehensive threat intelligence data. Sources include primary source intelligence such as endpoint telemetry or incident response observations, dark web monitoring, network telemetry, open-source intelligence (OSINT), intelligence shared within a country or industry, and intelligence reporting from trusted CTI providers. Leveraging platforms such as CrowdStrike’s Falcon Adversary Intelligence or Google Threat Intelligence (aka Mandiant Advantage), organizations can collect valuable information on adversary behaviors, attack vectors, indicators of compromise (IOCs), and much more.
Analysis Stage 1: Classify Adversaries
Classifying adversaries into distinct groups based on their characteristics and behaviors is an essential part of adversary profiling. CrowdStrike’s adversary naming convention serves as an excellent model for this process because it paints a clear picture about the motivation of the adversary, and likely location where they operate.
Each class of adversary operates with different motives and capabilities. Nation State adversaries use names corresponding to their country of origin, such as PANDA for China, BEAR for Russia, CHOLLIMA from North Korea, etc. eCrime threat actors use the moniker SPIDER to denote distinct groups. Similarly, Hacktivists are branded as JACKALs.
Nation State actors like FANCY BEAR and WICKED PANDA are working for the government, and are generally well-funded, highly skilled, and focus on espionage, intellectual property theft, and disruption. On the other hand, financially motivated groups like BITWISE SPIDER or SCATTERED SPIDER are less discerning about their targets, and are focused on either ransomware or extortion schemes aimed at generating multi-millions in ransom payments.
The primary goal of this step is to identify the adversaries most likely to target the organization. There are many techniques for conducting this task, but a general rule of thumb is to collate a list of threat actors targeting the same industry the organization is operating within, and identify those groups who have been active within the last twelve to eighteen months. This structured approach aids in quickly identifying and responding to threats, ensuring defensive measures are appropriately tailored to counter specific adversary tactics.
Analysis Stage 2: Identify Adversary TTPs
The identification of adversary TTPs forms the cornerstone of effective CTI. This step involves a deep dive into historical and current threat data to understand the methodologies cyber threat actors employ. Using frameworks such as MITRE ATT&CK, organizations can systematically categorize and map adversary tradecraft. For example, understanding whether an adversary prefers strategic web compromise, spear-phishing, vulnerability exploitation, or purchasing harvested credentials from an initial access broker on the dark web helps in painting a comprehensive picture of one or more components of their operational strategies.
Analyzing attack patterns from previous incidents provides crucial insights. For instance, the recent Snowflake incident involved an information stealer harvesting credentials, allowing a threat actor to obtain a valid identity to login to the provider, thus facilitating widespread data leakage.
Another semi-recent, but important example is the 2021 Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack involving CARBON SPIDER’s DarkSide ransomware-as-a-service (RaaS). An affiliate using the RaaS exploited a compromised password to gain entry to the business network. The attack led to the shutdown of the largest fuel pipeline in the United States, causing significant disruptions and highlighting the critical nature of cyber security in protecting critical infrastructure.
Organizations should look for commonalities in the tools and malware used, infrastructure leveraged for command-and-control and payload delivery, and specific vulnerabilities targeted. This analysis not only aids in predicting future attack vectors but also enhances the overall threat landscape comprehension.
By continuously updating this knowledge base, security teams can stay ahead of adversaries who frequently evolve their methods to bypass conventional defenses.
Production: Develop Adversary Profiles
Developing comprehensive adversary profiles is a pivotal step in the cyber threat intelligence process. These profiles consolidate all available information into a structured format, providing a detailed view of each adversary’s operations and capabilities. A well-crafted adversary profile includes several key elements:
- Origin and Background. Information about the geographical origin and historical context of the adversary group, in addition to their motivation
- Known Aliases. Different names or identifiers used by the adversary in various reports and incidents. This generally refers to aggregating the various names used by different vendors and security researchers into the profile, so everyone is able to speak a common language.
- Historical Activities. A timeline of significant attacks and campaigns attributed to the adversary, detailing the impact and sectors targeted.
- Preferred TTPs. Specific TTPs frequently employed by the adversary, including the tools and malware used.
- Capabilities and Resources. An assessment of the adversary’s technical capabilities, including funding sources, skill levels, and potential affiliations with larger groups or nexus to Nation State actors.
For instance, “Lazarus Group” is linked to North Korean state-sponsored activities, and is known for its involvement in high-profile incidents such as the 2014 Sony Pictures hack and the 2016 Bangladesh Central Bank SWIFT heist, where approximately US$101 million was stolen.
These profiles serve as living documents requiring continuous updates as new intelligence becomes available. Security teams can use these profiles to conduct threat modeling, simulate potential attack scenarios, and refine their defense strategies. By understanding the specific attributes and behaviors of their adversaries, organizations can anticipate moves and counteract them effectively.
The adversary profiles, while generally developed by the CTI team, are documents designed to be leveraged throughout the entire organization. If the CTI team is gatekeeping the adversary profiles, there is a cultural or some other underlying organizational problem in need of fixing. CTI is best used holistically rather than used only by one or two teams.
Threat Modeling and Simulation
Armed with detailed adversary profiles, organizations can conduct threat modeling and simulation exercises. Scenarios based on real-world adversary behaviors allow security teams to test their defenses, identify vulnerabilities, and improve incident response strategies. Regularly updating these exercises with fresh intelligence ensures readiness against evolving threats.
Implement Adaptive Defense Strategies
Profiling adversaries enables the implementation of adaptive defense strategies tailored to specific threats. By understanding an adversary's modus operandi, organizations can deploy countermeasures that disrupt attack chains and reduce the likelihood of successful breaches. This proactive approach shifts the focus from reactive to anticipatory defense, significantly enhancing an organization's security posture.
Continuous Monitoring and Intelligence Sharing
Effective adversary profiling requires continuous monitoring and intelligence sharing. Leveraging platforms for real-time threat intelligence updates ensures that profiles remain current and relevant. Participating in information-sharing communities, such as Information Sharing and Analysis Centers (ISAC), fosters collaboration and collective defense against common adversaries targeting a particular industry.
In a future blog post we will dive deep into threat modeling, simulation, implementing adaptive defense strategies, continuous monitoring, and intelligence sharing. These topics are briefly touched upon here because they are key components to post-adversary profiling worth mentioning here. These topics warrant their own comprehensive discussion.
Conclusion
The stakes have never been higher than they are in today’s insane cyber threat landscape. The process of identifying adversary TTPs, classifying adversaries, and developing meticulous profiles is not just a procedural task - it is the lifeblood of organizational cyber defense strategy. By leveraging these actionable insights, organizations position themselves at the forefront of cyber resilience.
Imagine having the power to predict and preemptively neutralize cyber threats before they infiltrate a network. Through understanding the precise tactics and motivations of adversaries, organizations gain the upper hand. Their security teams will become adept hunters, tracking the digital footprints of sophisticated attackers with unparalleled precision.
Adversary profiling equips teams with the knowledge to outsmart even the most formidable malicious actors. This is not merely about keeping up with threats, rather staying multiple steps ahead. It is about turning the tables on adversaries who once appeared insurmountable.
By embracing a structured, dynamic approach to profiling, organizations will transform their defensive posture from reactive to anticipatory. This proactive stance is the strongest ally in the ongoing battle against sophisticated threat actors.
In this ever-evolving battlefield, adversary profiling is the secret weapon. It empowers organizations to better safeguard their digital assets, protect their intellectual property, and defend their enterprise against relentless cyber attacks.
Harness the power of cyber threat intelligence, and turn your organization into an unassailable fortress, ready to confront and conquer the threats of today and tomorrow. Equip your organization with the insights, tools, and strategies to not only defend but to dominate in the face of cyber adversity.
